Saturday, July 13, 2013

Outlook for week of July 15, 2013

We now have multiple signals aligned and telling us to sell.  The envelop upper lines crossing (sell);  the quarter Wall cycle (about 23 days) topping (sell); RSI in overbought territory (sell);  ROC in overbought territory (sell)....  Check your favorite indicators and let us know their status.

Here is a visual showing the discussed indicators:

Recent transactions using my cycle analysis:



  1. how the heck do you get "crosses" with MA envelopes that are offset -6 days and -11 days?!?!

    You are clearly extending the upper lines yourself to generate the "sell signal".

    You cannot extend the lower lines to get a "buy".

    What exactly do you think this indicator is telling you?

  2. Scott - the envelopes are offset 1/2 a cycle (12-13 days and 23 days) so the envelops are placed relative to the data in the envelop channel. If you read Hurst he explains the logic behind offsetting the envelops.

    As to extending the envelops, I clearly show the extension by using dotted lines and yes that crossing is a guess but I try to confirm using other indicators as shown and do not rely sole on these extensions... Why do you think extended lower lines cannot intersect and produce a signal (because it can at the right point in a cycle - see RWM chart)? No system is perfect - which is why I advise you use this with other indicators. If I had a perfect system then I would OWN Warren Buffett.

  3. Seems like the markets have to sell off soon. This is OPEX week, so maybe we grind a little higher for the next couple days--then sell off at the end of the week or early next week.

    Nice charts Inlet.

  4. Doc - looks like as usual I was too quick to jump in. Someday I will learn my signals tend to be 2-4 days early.