Saturday, February 23, 2013

Mar 2013 outlook

I suspect we are into a pullback of at least 6-7%.  If we get that by mid-March then it will be time to take a second look.  Overall March should be weak.  As usual we will have some short up moves, but the cycles suggest we get more down than up.  By mid April  expect the 20 week Wall cycle to be bottoming (a buy the dip opportunity?).

Here is a visual:

GL traders


  1. Hi!

    It is possible to explain how construct the "envelope" with 3 line upper and down?
    Thanks for share your work.


    1. See upper left side of chart. The blue/red/gre lines are the parameters I used in stockcharts to have it draw the envelopes.

  2. Inlet,
    Thanks for all your work.
    From what I am reading/listening to, the correction should occur soon.
    I added to my RWM position last Thursday, so, bring it on.

    1. Doctrader - I think we are finally at the point to pullback. It is fairly common for the upleg to be 60% or so of a cycle (12 weeks for the 20 week Wall cycle). That implies as much as 8 weeks to the cycle bottom (2 weeks in Feb/Mar/2 weeks in Apr). If it works as implied by the charts the last 3 weeks (last week of Mar and first 2 weeks of Apr) should show the most downside as multiple cycles bottom.

    2. Doctrader
      A nice day to have some RWM. You did good.

    3. Inlet,

      You know, it was a zoo here all day, and I didn't have a chance to look at my computer until about 5pm. What a shock!

      You still thinking we go to 1420-1430 or so?

    4. Doctrader - the DPO (51 days is half 20 week cycle plus 1) or Detrended Price Oscillator accounts for all cycle amplitudes of 20 weeks or less and that is about 100 points. 1531 less 100 is about 1430 by or before md-April. This does not account for longer cycles.