Sunday, February 10, 2013

25 years ago

Oct 19, 1987 we had the biggest one day fall (flash crash) ever in the market.  That wa 25.3 +/- years ago.  And 25.3+ years before that was May, 29 1962 (flash crash of 5.7% for the Dow). Coincident?  Possibly.  We are close to 25.3 years since the Oct 19, 1987 crash.  So with sequestration coming is a crash possible within the next 2 or so weeks?

1912 - crash happened June 1913

1937 - market dropped by half late 1936 - March 1938 (24.8 years after June 1913)

1962 - May 29,1962 market drops 5.7 % (about 25 years)

1987 - Oct 19, 1987 market drops 22.6% (25.3 years after 1962 flash crash)

2013 - Feb 11, 2013 is about 25.3 years (??? crash time ???))

Notice how these incidents (flash crashes) occur 25+ years. Will it happen again?

1912 market heads down

1912 DJIA declined 23.5%. Duration of bear market: 26 months. Crash came

in June 1913, but bear had started in November 1912. Bear low came in

December 1914. Since the stock market was closed for 4 months in 1914

by the war, a true picture of the decline here is impossible. One source

says it was 36.3%. But I’ll take the more conservative published DJIA

figures as my base.

2013 Looks a Lot Like 1937 in Four Fearsome Ways
Will 2013 be 1937? This is the question many analysts are posing as the stock market has dropped after the U.S. election. On Nov. 16, they noted that industrial production, a crucial figure, dropped as well.

In this case, "1937" means a market drop similar to the one after the re-election of another Democratic president, FDR, in 1936.

The drop wasn’t immediate in that case; it came in the first full year after the election. Industrial production plummeted by 34.5 percent. The DJIA dropped by half, from almost 200 in early 1937 to less than 100 at the end of March 1938.


The Flash Crash 1962
"The stock market careened downward yesterday," reported The Wall Street Journal on May 29, 1962, "leaving traders shaken and exhausted." The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 5.7% that day, down 34.95, the second-largest point decline then on record.

"The drop took place on volume so heavy," added the Journal, that the "ticker wasn’t able to finish reporting floor transactions until 5:59 p.m., two hours and 29 minutes after the market closed."

Oct. 19, 1987 | Stock Market Crashes on ‘Black Monday’
On Oct. 19, 1987, a day that became known as "Black Monday," the stock market crashed as the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 508 points, or 22.6 percent in value, its largest percentage drop ever.

Feb. 11, 2013 Market Crashes - DJIA down 2015 points

Black Monday II" happened Feb 11, 2013

NOT a prediction, just an observation....

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