Friday, February 1, 2013

February 2013 outlook

January is over and played out much as anticipated. Seems I was off a couple of days on the top (assuming we set a top early this last week of January).  Maybe the 2 days the market was closed for Sandy affects my counts   (not sure how something like this that closes markets affects the cycle day counts)?

I see a lot of people talking about a severe pull back, and I am sure at some point we will get a 40-50% correction like 2008-2009 or in the early 2000s.  Seems to me though the market holds up longer or pulls back less for longer than we expect.  Now I expect February to show weakness as the Wall cycle turns down .  The 33-34 TD cycle also should have topped and turned down for the first 3 weeks of January.  Offsetting is the Kitchin Cycle (up), the 1/3 Kitchin Cycle (up) and 1/4 Wall (22-25 TD cycle up).  Overall I believe the 33-34 TD and Wall Cycle will win, but there is no clear cut case for a huge drop.  So The market should frustrate the bears (a 30-40 point pullback in the S&P 500) and provide little comfort to the bulls.

Here is a visual:

GL traders

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