Thursday, February 16, 2012

02-17-2012 outlook and comments

I have tried to give you sufficient advance warning as to what I feel will be a top.  So far this week is playing out much as expected with the 22TD cycle having topped and the 20 week (Wall) cycle topping offsetting each other.

The question is how much more upside is left?  I looked at the 20 week DPO to try and come up with an answer.  It appears we may have  1-1.5 points of upside left for the SPX.  Of course, anytime you try to call a top (or bottom) getting it right requires some luck.  So 1360.44 or so appears to be the upside as projected by the 20 week DPO (amplitude). Here is a picture:

BTW - I understand Pretcher of Elliott Wave fame has a projected target of 1360.

I also show the CCI, and it has fallen below +100 which I use as a "sell" signal.  Over the past few days  and tonight I have shown you:
  • Cycles that appear to be topping
  • MFI that is headed down
  • CCI signaling sell
  • DPO projection nearly fulfilled
I am sure you have your own TA indicators (RSI, MACD, Stochs) you look at, but I try to add to the more commonly used TA indicators to supplement your analysis.

GL traders.


  1. market is a freight train, that is the cycle.

    but Faber says correction coming,he's not sure whether it will be -100 s/p pts or -200pts.

    is this fun or what!!!

    1. Jennasue - stay off the tracks until the train starts backing up. ;)

      I trust your instincts. Not sure what will be the catalyst, but we are due a pullback. The 20 week cycle amplitude is about 160 points so a pullback of that size by the first week of May seems possible.

      I am tired of having fun -- time to make some $s!!!