Saturday, October 23, 2010

Is/has the VIX signaled a top near?

Always keep more than one tool in your toolbox.  One thing I watch for a trend change signal is the VIX.  There are several variations on how to interpret a trend change.  Most look for a 2 standard deviations variance (ie Bollinger Bands) and a confirmation.  Put simply that is 47.5% down from a top or 95% up from a bottom.  A bottom (2 std dev down) may signal a trend change from "bull" to "bear".  A top (2 std dev up) may signal a trend change from "bear" to "bull".  That is the general idea - as I said there are differences on what constitutes a confirmation.  As I interpret it we are waiting on a confirmation (The VIX has been down recently from its top around 38.60 by 2 standard deviations).

A unique approach I ran across uses a ratio of the VIX and  VXV.  It has issued 6 "top" signals  since the VXV came about in late 2007 (not counting the signal just given).  Of these signals 5 mark tops. 

Hope you found this interpretation of the VIX signal interesting as I did.

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