comments and outlook for 05-17-2011

I said "So with this cycle alignment I expect Monday to be down.  I will be surprised if we don't get a 1% (or more) down day on the S&P 500.".  OK - paint me surprised, we did not get 1% down today.  At least I was in the right church - even if in the wrong pew.

Tuesday the 22TD cycle is  down, the 11.2TD cycle is down,  the 5.6TD cycle is down.  The 2.8TD cycle is up.  So tomorrow should be similar to today, but the push down by the longer of the short cycles if anything should be stronger than today.  I believe we should break below 1320 on the S&P 500 tomorrow.

Here is the chart with the short term cycles:

Gl traders.  Do your own analysis - and as always use stops to protect yourself....

comments and outlook for week of 05-16-2011

The week just finished was much as projected.  My expectations for the coming week is that the 22TD cycle (and other shorter cycles will bottom mid week - as early as Tue close, but more likely sometime Wed).  So I expect a hard push down Mon and Tue to a low.  I have a target of the 1300-1310 as a low.

Take a look:

Taking a longer view, you need to be very aware we are in a period of time that could be a pivot for a substantial pullback.  The 20 week (Wall cycle) should top the week of May 21.  Also we are at a point where the down leg of the 1 year cycle should start having dominant influence.  So any bounce off the bottom next week is apt to be muted and short lived.

I collected some Fibonacci ratios going back to the early 1980s to highlight the potential targets.  It is my opinion that we see a substantial pullback into July starting as soon as next week or the week of 05-23.  Looking at cycle amplitudes for the 1 year and 20 week (Wall) cycles I believe the downside target is around 1100 by sometime in July.    How does this mesh with the Fibonaccis?  Here is a table:

The Fibs downside target that best fits my projections is 1095.  If I am wrong and the market continues up the next target is around 1443.  Here is a weekly chart of the SnP 500 showing my projections:

As you can see my target area covers the FIB 1095 projection.  As always - do your own analysis.  I like the confirmation between the cycle amplitude and FIB projections.

comments and outlook for 05-16-2011

First -  I'd like to comment on the Blogger outage.  I worked with computers about 35 years.  Over that time I installed lots of changes for maintenance and new software releases.  You learn early on (if you expect to last) that your back off plan needs to be as comprehensive as your install plan.  One thing you can be sure of is that sooner or later you will have to back out maintenance or an upgrade.  It seems to me that this did not happen with Blogger maintenance and when there were problems the staff was flying by the seat of their pants trying to recover. 

This type of procedure is unacceptable!!!  Can you imagine a bank installing maintenance and not being able to process transactions for 2 days?  Or FedEx not being able to track packages because of a maintenance glitch?  I can sell them my "Attention to Detail" video lecture from a former manager.  Hehehehe.  I hope that this is a learning event for the Blogger technical support staff.  Enough of my soapbox lecture.

Today was much as expected.  Sorry I was unable to get it posted until midday today.  Now we never know what will happen over the weekend, but my analysis is news agnostic - so here goes.  Monday should be down.  How's that - no wave counts, no multiple options, no hedging of opinion.

The 22TD cycle is down and is at the point where its impact should start to dominate.  The 11.2TD cycle is also down which should support the 22TD cycles push down.  The 5.6TD cycle is topping during the day providing some (but not a lot) of upside impulse.  The 2.8TD cycle  is down.  So with this cycle alignment I expect Monday to be down.  I will be surprised if we don't get a 1% (or more) down day on the S&P 500.

I mentioned several days the possibility of an "M" pattern forming, here is a visual of the SPY and the cycles take a look:

GL traders.  Do your own analysis - I could be wrong.

comments and 05-13-2011

As I am sure you noticed Google Blogger has been in "read only" mode - which means no new posts.  Actually it appears they have lost a day's worth of posts.

Yesterday was much as expected.    Today is also following script.  It does appear though the longer 22TD cycle is starting to dominate.  Thought we might see some green earlier in the day, but any green was fleeting and minor.

Here is the SPY chart:

GL traders.

$gold comments and outlook 05-12

Yesterday we looked at $silver.  Tonite I am featuring $gold.  As best as I can determine gold should bottom mid-June, then bounce and set a lower bottom by the end of August.

Here are charts:

Gl traders, you like gold - be patient.

Comments and 05-12-2011

Today was as expected in yesterday's post.  The day was down with a small bounce toward the close.  Tomorrow is less clear.  I believe we may get a small down tick early and then turn up for the remainder of the day.  The 22TD cycle is down, the  11.2TD cycle topped and turned down.  The 5.6TD and 2.8TD cycles turn up early in the day (if not before the close).  So that gives us the two longer cycles down, the two shorter cycles up.  I expected the shorter cycles to win as they turn quicker and that we will have an up day.  I do not believe it will be a big up day, but up 5 or so points.

Of course the risk/question is when does the 22TD cycle gain enough momentum to dominate?  We should be approaching that point (so there is a good chance we do not get the expected up move).

Here is the chart:

GL traders.  Do your own analysis.

$silver the outlook 5-11-2011

One would expect it will take some time for silver to work thru the current volatility and reestablish a trend.  The charts indicate that will be around the end of June - first of July.  The projected bottom is  $32.50-$35.00 (of course we have already seen sub $35).   So I suspect we will base for the next 10-12 weeks in the $30s before silver begins another leg up.

Here is a chart:

GL, do your own analysis....

comments and outlook 05-11-2011

Oops, missed the action today.  Reviewed my chart and it appears I inadvertently slipped the bottoms I was looking at about 1/2 a day left.   I need better tools than manually drawing the cycles, but tools cost money for the software and input data.....  So I suppose you will have to tolerate my occasional slip up.

Tomorrow we have the 22TD cycle down, the 11.2TD cycle up, the 5.6TD cycle down and the 2.8TD cycle down.  So it appears the day I was looking for today (due to my slip up) happens tomorrow.

Here is the chart:

GL traders, do your own analysis

comments and outlook for 05-10

Today played out much as I expected in my post.  Tomorrow I expect a down day.  The 22TD cycle is down.  the 5.6TD cycle is down the next day and a half.  The 2.8 day cycle should top in the morning and turn down,  the 11.2 day cycle is up.  With this setup I expect the market to be down for the day tomorrow and into the day Wednesday.  We probably give up today's gains and then some.

Here is a visual:

GL traders.  Do your own analysis.

Update:  CME increases margins on oil futures by 25%.

comments and outlook for 05-09-2011

Friday showed some recovery from a down week as I expected.  Monday should continue that recovery, but it will slow and not very exciting.  I would expect a minor move up early, a pullback midday and then a modest move up in the afternoon.  The 22TD cycle is down but not at full momentum down yet.  The 11.2TD cycle is up, the 5.6TD cycle is up but tops around noon. the 2.8TD cycle is down and bottoms around noon.  Maybe 4-5 points on the S&P at the end of the day?

Here is a visual:

GL traders.  Do your own analysis..