Saturday, March 5, 2016

Mar 7, 2016 weekly outlook

Last week I introduced the Hurst cycles.  One cycle is 54 months.  One fourth  of that is 13 1/2 months. 

If you have followed my blog you know I have often referred to the Kitchin cycle which is 40 1/2 months and I often showed 1/3 of the Kitchin cycle (13 1/2 months).  Another commonality of Kitchin and Hurst cycles is the 20 week cycle (4 1/2 months or 1/3 of 13 1/2 months).

So every  4th  Kitchin cycle and 3rd 54 month cycle these cycles bottom together which should result in a steeper sell down. It appears the Kitchin cycle may have just bottomed and the Hurst 54 month cycle bottoms 2017 Feb/Mar time period.  So for the next 5-6 months shorter cycles may push the market sideways or up.  Continued volatility  is expected as the Hurst 54 month cycle pushes down against shorter cycles pushing up as cycles go through their progression.....  By Sept/Oct the market pressure should revert to down side pressure.

GL traders

Estimating move "amplitude" using DPO.  Answer  to a question....


  1. Can you kindly provide a didactic explanation on how DPO is generated and used to project price move? Is the recent 175 DPO value the projection of current uptrend that started at SPX 1810?

  2. Based on moving average (equal cycle length of interest). Is time shifted 1/2 the cycle length. Should include impact of all shorter cycles. Price above/below average price is DPO value. See "" education tab and search for DPO.

    See "education" and search "DPO"....

  3. So it's similar to David Hickson's FLD...Forward Line of Demarcation. Thanks, I'll look into it.

  4. I believe FLD is forward shifted whereas this is backward shifted (similar to Hurst envelopes)...