Cycles are a tool and should not be used to the exclusion of other tools. There is always the possibility (high probability long term) that the data will be misinterpreted or a relevant fact over looked. So use cycles to check your analysis, not as the only reason to make a decision. Interpretation is the opinion of the author and may be incorrect and should be viewed in that light.
Thanks for the Gold cycles! I'm grateful! How does this jive with Hurst cycle? Sentient trader is assuming that the 18 month trough has occurred already but I'm not too sure about that.
For your cycle troughs, the degree of price move is not necessarily proportional to the degree of trough? In other words, a 40 wk trough doesn't necessarily produce a bigger price swing magnitude compared to a 20 wk trough?
Look at DPO (Detrended Price Option) for estimating amplitude of movement up/down by cycles. See (search) on stockcharts.com for more information on DPO.
Thanks for the Gold cycles! I'm grateful!
ReplyDeleteHow does this jive with Hurst cycle? Sentient trader is assuming that the 18 month trough has occurred already but I'm not too sure about that.
http://hurstcycles.com/gold-peak-coming/#sthash.jLeB57mF.dpbs
DeleteClick on chart to enlarge it.
For your cycle troughs, the degree of price move is not necessarily proportional to the degree of trough? In other words, a 40 wk trough doesn't necessarily produce a bigger price swing magnitude compared to a 20 wk trough?
ReplyDeleteLook at DPO (Detrended Price Option) for estimating amplitude of movement up/down by cycles. See (search) on stockcharts.com for more information on DPO.
ReplyDelete