Saturday, February 28, 2015

Mar 2, 2015 weekly outlook

Looks like we may have finally topped Friday Feb 27.  We will find out next week.  I believe I am off with my cycle bottoms so I have tried to account for holidays the last part of 2014 and early 2015 which moves the projected bottoms into mid-March.    I find this is necessary with the shorter (swing trade) cycles about twice a year.  I should do a better job making the adjustments as the holidays happen.

So please note I expect the bottom mid March.

GL traders


  1. I don't understand the cycles being used here. It is evident that in the last three charts the cycles CHANGE each week. If each week your cycle doesn't work, you change the cycle hoping that it will work next week and then the cycle for the week after that doesn't work so the cycle is changed again. Eventually the cycle will be "correct" but you have to plow thru a half dozen times where it doesn't work, and your option money is wiped out.

  2. Ben - Let me repeat what I have said before - you need to do your own analysis and my opinion should be a single data point in that analysis. I am not trying to provide analysis of fine enough granularity to guide options trading. If you are trading options then you need to find a source providing that guidance.

    I have learned over time to not argue with the data. Therefore, if I deem a change is needed then I make a change rather than argue with reality. If you have a better approach then I suggest you follow it. I have warned several times in the past my analysis is my opinion and may be incorrect.

  3. Which software do you use to draw de cycles?

    1. see very upper right of chart - "" and annotation feature to .draw cycles etc.