Saturday, January 24, 2015

Jan 26, weekly outlook

Two longer cycles (90 TDs and 45 TDs) are down.  Two shorter cycles (12 TDs and 23-24 TDs) are up into next week.  Expect top and turn down during the week with a bottom of short cycles by first Monday in February....  We may see new highs in SnP (close call?).


GL traders

1/30/2015 - update:

Charles Nenner Research (source)
Stocks should peak in mid-2013 and fall until about 2020. Similarly, bonds should peak in the summer of 2013 and fall thereafter for 20 years. He bases his conclusions entirely on cycle research. He expects the Dow to fall to around 5,000 by 2018 – 2020.
Kress Cycles (Clif Droke) (source)
The major 120 year cycle plus all minor cycles trend down into late 2014. The stock market should decline hard into late 2014.
Elliott Wave (Robert Prechter) (source)
He believes that the stock market has peaked and has entered a generational bear-market. He anticipates a crash low in the market around 2016 – 2017.
Market Energy Waves (source)
He sees a 36 year cycle in stock markets that is peaking in mid-2013 and will cycle down for 2013 – 2016. “… the controlling energy wave is scheduled to flip back to negative on July 19 of this year.” Equity markets should drop 25 – 50%.
Armstrong Economics (source)
His economic confidence model projects a peak in confidence in August 2013, a bottom in September 2014, and another peak in October 2015. The decline into January 2020 should be severe. He expects a world-wide crash and contraction in economies from 2015 – 2020.
Cycles per Charles Hugh Smith (source)
He discusses four long-term cycles that bottom in the 2010 – 2020 period. They are: Credit expansion/contraction cycle, Price inflation/wage cycle, Generational cycle, and Peak oil extraction cycle.

5 comments:

  1. Better yet Sir,

    On 4/15/2014 you wrote on your blog about the Jubilee, Kitchin Cycle, Blood moons and how it fits.........I came across this morning (0500 Hrs) and I might add I did not need any coffee, because this woke me up.

    How can I as a investor utilize this very valuable information.

    Is this aa good sign or a bad sign to the markets

    Thank You

    PS
    I grew up in Brunswick County NC (Bolivia) not far from you, am now living in Gulf Shores AL. A Jubilee here is when on the eastern shore in Mobile Bay, fish, crabs and shrimp swim to shore and the locals bring any kind of containers that will hold the seafood. It is a good thing for the locals (bad for the seafood).

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. For shorter term swing trading it sets the likely environment of the market that you are trading in. If the trend changes to a seriously bearish market then you may want to trade some of the inverse ETFs (like RWM - inverse for Russell 2000 Index). There are inverses for most of the major indexes and many sectors (banks or oil). The direction of the market is less important than being in sync with the market direction.

      Hope this helps...

      David Knox Barker wrote a book on Jubilee (it is covered in Leviticus in the Bible). Barker is from the Black Mountain NC area I believe and an expert on long term cycles. Google him for additional information.

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    2. I looked David up and I read what he and others have wrote. This is a WHOLE another level, it is like playing three tiered chesse ( I have a problem playing just one board level). Anyway I trade in forex only, these inverses you are talking about are you talking is Greek to me. I buy and I sell a few times a week depending of the strength of the base currency. I do follow the overall market (Stock, DJ, S&P AND NOW THE Russell Index here in the US), as well as other countries Fed Reserve. I want to thank you for your time with answering my question. Next time I am in Bolivia (Mother) I'll send you a message to see if we could meet. I would love to pick brain your over some seafood, steak or ribs.

      Delete
    3. An Inverse is similar to going short, but is for short term trades as they are set up using derivatives and have to be reset (NAV declines over time). So If the underlying security goes up the Inverse goes down.....

      I also have a place west of Charlotte about an hour from Ashville so not always at the beach.

      Delete
  2. eToro is the ultimate forex broker for beginner and advanced traders.

    ReplyDelete