Sunday, June 29, 2014

Jul 1, 2014 second half outlook

Normally I look at the market 1-2 weeks ahead (because that is where the normal swing trade takes place).  I took  a long term look early in 2014 (a year ahead and then some very long term charts).

It is time to take a look at the second half of the year.   A 15 month cycle bottomed late June 2013.  So it should bottom again in late Sept along with the 7.5 month cycle and 3.75 month cycle.  Based on the bottom amplitude in late June 2013 I expect the bottom to result in more than 5% pullback (Maybe even a correction (over 10%)).

Currently the market is past the mid-point of the 15 month and 7.5 month cycles resulting in right translation.  This implies considerable downside pressure from these cycles into 3rd week of September.  So I expect the upside from shorter cycles to be greatly neutralized for the next several weeks.

I will try to keep you updated weekly.

GL traders.

1 comment:

  1. Ahh, that is good to see. I much prefer the wider time view, not least since the general trend still hasn't changed.

    So, here we are.. about to enter July, and at best 3-4 months, until the typical Nov/Dec rally.

    Equity bears need to show up by late July, and break under sp'1900, or I find it hard to imagine we have any hope of seeing sub'1800 for a very considerable time.

    *as I'm sure you are aware, early Oct' is a typical seasonal floor...and it remains interesting to see your cycles all suggestive of that time frame being a key turn.

    Have a good week.