Sunday, June 29, 2014
Jul 1, 2014 second half outlook
Normally I look at the market 1-2 weeks ahead (because that is where the normal swing trade takes place). I took a long term look early in 2014 (a year ahead and then some very long term charts).
It is time to take a look at the second half of the year. A 15 month cycle bottomed late June 2013. So it should bottom again in late Sept along with the 7.5 month cycle and 3.75 month cycle. Based on the bottom amplitude in late June 2013 I expect the bottom to result in more than 5% pullback (Maybe even a correction (over 10%)).
Currently the market is past the mid-point of the 15 month and 7.5 month cycles resulting in right translation. This implies considerable downside pressure from these cycles into 3rd week of September. So I expect the upside from shorter cycles to be greatly neutralized for the next several weeks.
I will try to keep you updated weekly.