Sunday, March 2, 2014

Mar 3, 2014 weekly outlook - where has the 9 month cycle gone?

The 9 month cycle is around 40 weeks (2 x 20 week cycle.  The actual cycle length according to some sources is 40.68 weeks.  Still many analysis refer to it as a 9 month cycle (2 Wall cycles).  Over the past few months it seems this 9 month cycle has not been there (even though in the past it and the 18 month cycle have been reliable).  Take a look:

So what do we (should we) do when the data fails to align to our expectations?  We examine the data in an attempt to determine what is the best fit for the data.  In doing that we hope out outlook will more closely match actual market activity.  I believe this more closely matches the current market action:

Why the variance from the traditional cycle length?  I am not sure, but FED actions may be having an effect.  I do expect the market will revert to the 20/40 week cycles, but in the meantime will look for 15/30 week cycles.  I advise all to be alert to this possible variance in the cycles.

GL traders



  2. Would be curious to see a wider forward time scale on the second chart.

    Maybe this weekend?

    Actually, something into 2016 would be..nice :)