Tuesday, June 25, 2013

July 2013 outlook

As expected June showed weakness.  Seemed to top a bit earlier than projected, but the data filled in the 2013 projection from January fairly nicely.  In July we have the 1/3 Kitchin cycle and Wall cycle down.  The Kitchin cycle is up.  The 34TD cycle is down early July then turns up.  So weakness early July as the 34TD cycle bottoms and less so the final 3 weeks of July, but I expect the market to continue to erode in July (unlike many I am not projecting a crash scenario - that probably doesn't happen until October).

So a nasty little dip in early July, then the market stabilizes and drifts lower into August.  Expect the normal dull summer market?

Here is my 2013 projection with data for most of June included:


  1. Thanks Dawg,
    How does one use cycles to trade?
    Do you use the turning points of the cycles to anticipate where other TA signals should appear?
    Or is it more of a trend indicator?

  2. Turning points of cycles is an area of interest in buying/selling (trading) an equity. Also, you will see I sometimes use nested envelope crossings (upper channel lines crossing then sell, lower lines buy), RSI, CCI, etc to try and verify buy/sell points. Techniques I show you with indexes may be used with individual equities. My advice: use all the tools in your tool box that work for you along with cycles. The more information the better?