Saturday, March 9, 2013

Bull markets are right translated

In an ideal world a cycle top would be half way between two bottoms.  Unfortunately the world is not ideal.  When the trend of the longer cycles are up the shorter cycles tend to be right translated (top to the right of the cycle mid point).  So any down turn is squeezed into the last part (less than half) of the cycle. I know of no firm rule for fixing where in that second half the top will occur.  Often a larger part of the down side is in the last 1/4 to 1/8 of the total cycle. The  reverse is true (left translated) for a down trend.

I have discussed left an right translation before, but I would like to give you one more visual representation of this. 

How does this play out in the real world?  See for yourself:

If we are near a trend change then the current move up should be short lived... 

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