Monday, December 5, 2011

12-06-2011 outlook

Today was much as expected, so hopefully our adjustments are correct.  Today we heard Europe has a plan to have a plan by March.  I am impressed - hope you were.  I am sure the talking heads will continue to push this the whole week.  Not sure though it is relevant to market action. 

Seems S&P may throw water on the fire.  Something about a negative outlook on 17 Eurozone nations (doubts about their credit ratings or something).    Guess this should offset the cheery talk from the talking heads at CNBC.....

OK, that is the background for an OPEX week (which might cause a bit of volatility).  Who knows?  Don't believe there is any major data releases this week.

So we have the 40TD and 20TD cycles up tomorrow.  The 10TD cycle  and 5TD cycles are down.  The 2.5TD cycle tops in the afternoon.  Overall seems fairly neutral bias.  Maybe up some in the morning and a pull back in the afternoon.  Seems the 1265 area (200 DMA) is providing resistance to the upside.  Looking at the DPO for the 40TD cycle it appears the market is above the expected upside (7  X 8  = 56) of 56 points from the bottom so this could/will at some point provide some down side pressure.  So a range of 1240-1265 seems like a reasonable expectation.

Here is the SPX swing cycles (my interpretation):

GL traders.  Do your own analysis.


  1. Still waiting for that pullback.
    Maybe it will be today.

  2. Doctrader -

    So far looks like neutral bias and trading in a range as projected. Let's see what the second half of the day does.

  3. Keystone is big on the concept that the Nasdaq should lead the direction for the overall market. Presently, the Nasdaq is lower that the DOW. This would imply that the Nasdaq is leading us lower. So, maybe an afternoon sell off.

    We will see.