Friday, December 2, 2011

12-03-2011 reassessing swing cycles

As you probably know my projections seem to have been out of sync this week with the actual market action.  So I had to take a look at the data to try and determine if I needed to make adjustments.  Ideally the swing cycles would be 45TDs, 33.75TDs, 22.5TD,  11.25TDs, etc (this is based on Gann's eights of 90).  Those are the lengths one expects to find, but there is no "law" saying they have to be that length.  the 22.5TD cycle may actually be 20 days or 24 days for example.  My task is to interpret the data not try to fit it into some rigid framework.   So with that in mind I began a reassessment of the lengths I was using.  Looking at the longer cycles first here is what my assessment first revealed:

So it appears instead of a 33.75TD cycle or 45TD cycle we have a 40TD cycle .  Hurst explains this occurrence I believe of where you get a combination of 2 cycles into a length that is an approximate average of 2 common cycles.  Next I looked for component cycles and here is what I found:

So there appears to be a 20TD component.  Further examination leads me to believe 40TD, 20TD, 10TD, 5TD and 2.5TD cycles explain market action data.  This is the combination of swing cycles I will use in my swing cycle analysis until it no longer appears to explain the data.  Let me know if I need to look at fine tuning this.  Maybe I should use 39 days or 41 days instead of 40 days. 

No comments:

Post a Comment