Feb 29, 2016 weekly outlook

Looking at the full stochastics we see lines crossing at top of  stochastics chart telling us it is time to take some profits.  Even though we appear to have had an ICL and cycles have turned up two weeks ago the market tends to climb in a none linear fashion (up-down-up etc.) so with shortest cycle topping and down I suspect the week to be biased to the downside.

GL traders

FYI - Hurst cycles  (54 months, 18 months, 9 months/40 weeks)

 

weekly outlook for feb 22, 2016

As expected a bottom was set Thursday Feb 11 and that was followed by a turn up Friday and the 4 trading days in the week just past..  The pivot off the bottom takes a bit of time to develop upside momentum so the shorter cycles will result in a sideways to slightly up  this last week of February.

GL traders

An alternate cycle interpretation (Hurst cycles bottoming in March - 54, 18 month long cycles).  Shorter cycles include 20 weeks and 40 weeks,,,,,

 

Feb 16, weekly outlook

Market may have set an ICL (Intermediate Cycle Low) on Thursday which aligns with my prediction of several cycles bottoming the week ended (40 weeks or 9 months, 20 weeks. 10 weeks and 5 weeks).  There may have been longer cycles bottoming (LTCL - 7 years, 3 1/2 years, 13 1/2
 months etc.).  Time will tell regarding longer cycles.

GL traders.

Feb 08, 2016 weekly outlook

Do we get the bottom (ICL - Intermediate Cycle Low) this week?  That is what I expect as the 9 month bottoms along with the shorter embedded cycles.  There is a potential of longer cycles also bottoming during Feb-Mar time span (covered in previous posts.

 

GL traders

Feb 02 short term trades

An example of my short term trading (selling RWM then buying IWM):

By trading this way you can remain invested and remain market neutral.  Your gains will be small (1-2% per trade) but with 4-5 profitable trades a month you should net 6-10% a month.  Over a year you end up with nice gains...  Notice I use stops to avoid big losses, and this cuts into gains, but avoids big losses.

With indexes stop losses are effective because unlike stocks rarely do you get large gaps down.

Feb 4, 2014:

 

Bought back in 10:35

sold around 3:00 PM EST

Bought IWM Feb 5 around 10:50 am EST

Feb 1, 2016 outlook

An intermediate cycle low may have been reached  this past week (2-4 weeks earlier than projected).  If so I will need to make adjustments to my placement of cycles...  Time will tell.  So be aware we may have had an intermediate cycle bottom around the third week of January.  For now I am still expecting another bottom by/after mid February (and this is how I display it on my charts).

 

GL traders

For day traders:

Jan 25, 2016 weekly outlook

Three of 4 cycles down on chart.  Also longer cycles (3 1/2 and 7 years) set to bottom in about 6 weeks.  Past week ended up as 2 shorter cycles managed to overcome down side pressure.  Expect the sell down to resume next week (and continue past that until longer cycles bottom).  We have a lot of down and up volatility to trade.

So far have managed to do OK with short term trades in 2016. Past week was not great, less than 1% gain, but have a small position at week end in RWM that I feel positive about. 

Short term charts to help short trades:

 

 

 

 

Good luck traders

.

Jan 22, 2016

Day trade charts:

SPY:

RWM:

Good luck traders

Jan 19, 2016 weekly outlook

A four day week, relax Monday because no market meltdown in the USA. 

Appears we may have a couple more down days as we get a short  cycle bottoming and given a market that seems to want to fall doesn't take a lot of down side pressure to take the market down.

Notice the longer cycles are down and will not bottom until around the end of February - almost 7 years from the bottom in 2009 (7 year cycle):

GL traders.

For Day trading:

 

 

 

 

 

 

Good Luck day  traders

Jan 11, 2016 weekly outlook

Several longer cycles should bottom by around mid-February.  This is not a new projection, but this past week's market action seems to support this ....   Time will tell.  After 5 days of very negative market action one or two positive days next week are likely  as the 5 week cycle tops, but no up trend of multiple days seem likely.  (NOTE yearly outlook posted first of year)

Good luck traders


Short cycles for day traders:
Thurs Jan 14, 11:00 AM charts:

Good trading