June 4, 2018 weekly outlook

The first 5 months of  2018  ended with the DOW and SnP500 indexes flat.  The Russell 2000 fared better.  Appears multiple cycles bottomed this past week.  So June should fare better with the fist full week of June being up.

Bonus chart - remainder of 2018 -

GL traders

May 28, 2018 weekly outlook

Nested envelopes indicate top formed ....  Sell?

Meta Sine wave turned down and should bottom within 5-6 trading days.  Past week with short cycle down and longer cycles up gave a sideways move.  The week was sideways.  So far 2018 has been sideways.

 

May 14, 2018 weekly outlook

 

 

Hurst cycles

Shorter cycles  keep whipsawing up and down. Expect a short term top during the last half of the week.

 

Nested envelopes for cycles

Most of my posts use semi-circles to show cycles.  On April 1 I showed you the use of  "sine" waves as an alternative way to show cycles. 

Bit, there are other ways to visualize cycles.  Lots of people like Moving Averages (MAs) to analyze price movement.  We can use envelopes (based off MA offset above and below MA).  Time shifting 1/2 the  cycle span  centers the envelope.  To extract maximum information we nest cycle envelopes.

Here is an example - Russell 2000 Index:

Note  difference in MA lengths  (20 and 40 days), time shifted (10 and 20 days)  (2.5 and 3 deviations from MAs which are not shown)

Good Luck traders

weekly outlook april 30, 2018

Potential bottom by May 1.

GL traders

weekly outlook april 23, 2018

Expect downside forces during the week

GL Traders

April 16, 2018 weekly outlook

If you have followed my blog you should have noticed that one cycle spans two or more shorter cycles.  Generally we focus on shorter span cycles for swing trading.  The Wall cycle (20 week cycle) is the longest cycle we use for our trading:

The same  principle applies that longer cycles span multiple cycles of shorter time spans.  For example there is a cycle called the Kitchin cycle (named for a man of that name).  Ideally a Kitchin cycle is 42 months long but may vary some (so it is 3 1/2 years long and encompasses 3X 14 month cycles referred to as Third of a Kitchin cycle.  A Third of a Kitchin is 14 months or 3X20 weeks. (20 week cycle is often called the Wall Cycle (this cycle was first identified by PQ Wall) . So you can see why I rely heavily on the 20 week cycle.

Hope this helps you with your own analysis.  Good Luck traders

April 09, 2018 weekly outlook

As expected the past week saw retesting of major index lows.  About 20 points lower at the close on the Dow Jones Transport index would have triggered a Dow Theory Sell signal.

An Intermediate Cycle Low  (ICL) is expected as early as this week, but could be later in April.

Good Luck Traders

Danger Ahead GPPT (Global PPT at work)

RSI at extreme levels:

April 1, 2018 weekly outlook.

Looking at cycles using sine waves   -- SP500

GL traders