weekly outlook Apr 17, 2017

About 3 weeks ago I posted a longer term chart showing that a 13 1/2-14  month cycle should bottom mid April.  Looks like it is mid April!!

Also note the 20 week (10 week) cycle is bottoming  (2 cycles nested).  These 2 cycles seem to be dominant near term into late April as the 20 week cycle tops and turns down.  TSI crossed the zero line from above (a negative signal).

Good luck traders.

weekly outlook Apr 10, 2017

Indexes closed flat (very small losses) for the Apr 3rd week.  Three shorter cycles up, Longer cycle topped and turned down.  TSI flashing negatives.  Mixed signals, but bias of cycles should be up for the week.

GL traders

Outlook - longer term

On occasion I look at longer cycles to provide a context for the shorter swing cycles..  Normally The nine month cycle (about 190 trading days) is the longest cycle I discuss in my shorter term outlook to try and identify turning points.  The nine month cycle breaks down to 2 X  4 1/2 month cycles (about 95 trading days).  The 4 1/2 month cycles breaks down into 10 week cycles (about 50 days) and 5 week cycles (about 25 days).  If we were day trading we would look at even shorter cycles (12 1/2 days, 7 days, 3 1/2 days, etc.).

Longer cycles are the Juglar cycle (about 7 years). Two Kitchin cycles make up a Juglar  cycle (40-42 months, 3 1/2 years or 900 days).  The Kitchin cycle divides into 3 cycles ( called 1/3 Kitchin cycles of about 13 1/2 to 14 months or abour 300 days).  A 1/3 Kitchin cycle is composed of  3 Wall (4 1/2 months or about 100 days) .  This is where I normally start in my shorter swing trade analysis....

NOTE:  Juglar and Kitchin are people's names (Google them for more info)

Picture the above information:

 

As you can see we have multiple longer term cycles at up after the 1/3 Kitchin recent bottom. TSI is at extreme highs (in the past this has been sell points). If you are a longer term investor WAIT for a considerable pullback to invest (raise some cash now so you have some dry powder.).

 

Good luck investor.

Weekly outlook Apr 03, 2017

Short cycles formed a nested bottom and have turned up.  The week should show a positive outcome for the week.

Good luck traders

Weekly outlook Mar 27, 2017

Bottom may have been Tuesday's 1% pullback, but we have worked slightly lower in some indexes.  So we may work slightly lower as the nested bottoms finalize their move.  Notice that the lower bound of the Keltner channel been touched (as it was in Nov 2016, late June 2016 and mid February 2016. (every 4 1/2 months).

 November 8, 2016 plus 4 1/2 months is due now even allowing for some non-trading holidays.  So we will see next week - does the market turn up as shorter cycles turn up or does the bottom take 2-3 more days to gain enough upside pressure to move off the bottom?

GL traders

Weekly outlook Mar 20, 2017

3 shorter cycles formed a nested bottom and are turning up.  Long (9 month) cycle topped and is turning down.  As cycles gain momentum may set a new high, but not expecting any large move up or down.

Update 3/23:  Top of 9 month cycle and we get a mid-cycle (4 1/2 month) correction.  Next bottom of note is first part of August???

Good luck traders

TLT mar 13, 2017

Expect next tradeable bottom mid April.

GL traders

Weekly outlook Mar 13, 2017

Appears market still has more than a week to a bottom (near end of March), so a pullback continues  another 3-4% if the charts prove to be true.

GL traders

Gold/silver (XAU) March outlook

One more week down to set a bottom, then up as cycles turn. Last half of March should turn. but upside limited as 6 month cycle tops and turns down.

GL gold bugs

Weekly outlook for Mar 6, 2017

I told you last week:
"it appears any upside will be limited and possibly we see a slight downside bias by week's end."

We saw substantial moves by mid week, but gave a portion back after that.  The indexes were up less that 1% for the week  As I told you - limited upside   but Downside bias by week's end.

We have the 4.5 month (20 week), 10 week, and 5 week cycles down this week.  I expect these 3 cycles to prevail as the 9 month cycle see a mid cycle dip.  So a trade may be to trim your long positions (I will play an inverted index ETF for a short term trade - (looking for a 2-3% gain).

GL traders