Sunday, April 2, 2017

Outlook - longer term

On occasion I look at longer cycles to provide a context for the shorter swing cycles..  Normally The nine month cycle (about 190 trading days) is the longest cycle I discuss in my shorter term outlook to try and identify turning points.  The nine month cycle breaks down to 2 X  4 1/2 month cycles (about 95 trading days).  The 4 1/2 month cycles breaks down into 10 week cycles (about 50 days) and 5 week cycles (about 25 days).  If we were day trading we would look at even shorter cycles (12 1/2 days, 7 days, 3 1/2 days, etc.).

Longer cycles are the Juglar cycle (about 7 years). Two Kitchin cycles make up a Juglar  cycle (40-42 months, 3 1/2 years or 900 days).  The Kitchin cycle divides into 3 cycles ( called 1/3 Kitchin cycles of about 13 1/2 to 14 months or abour 300 days).  A 1/3 Kitchin cycle is composed of  3 Wall (4 1/2 months or about 100 days) .  This is where I normally start in my shorter swing trade analysis....

NOTE:  Juglar and Kitchin are people's names (Google them for more info)

Picture the above information:


As you can see we have multiple longer term cycles at up after the 1/3 Kitchin recent bottom. TSI is at extreme highs (in the past this has been sell points). If you are a longer term investor WAIT for a considerable pullback to invest (raise some cash now so you have some dry powder.).
Good luck investor.


  1. It would helpful if you could show a longer term view

    1. Try this for longer term:

  2. can yu please show me a view on mib-italy ?...tks a lot

  3. The Milan index trails (bottoms) SPX (S&P500) by 3-4 weeks..... Expect a pull bac into late April?