Saturday, November 19, 2016

Nov 21, 2016 weekly outlook

I said last week: "As of now I am assuming the market bottomed and turned.  Given the new high in the DOW, highs in other indexes seem probable.  Still given the amount of movement up last week a pause next week would be possible before week end." 

Highs most indexes, but SnP500 was about 4 points shy of a new high.  By mid/end of week the market was losing upside momentum (as expected).  R2K out performed as focus was on smaller companies with little foreign exposure (Think Trump and potential tariffs of companies with none USA business).

Next week we have the 5 week cycle topping (upside momentum slowed, but still potential upside bias for the week as 5 week  cycle tops).

 
 


GL traders

Italy ETF

GDX - Gold miners

 

15 comments:

  1. SnP500 set a new high around noon Mon 21, Nov

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  2. what do you think about this article?
    http://www.safehaven.com/article/43091/stock-market-warning-signs-gold-bounce-due

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    Replies
    1. I suspect we have seen the bottom (9 months / 40 weeks) already.

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  3. All year, I have been looking for an important bottom in the stock market around the end of November. The 40 week cycle low is due to give us at least an 11% shellacking and we have not seen one yet. I believe November 29th to December 5th may be the dates that will give us that drop.

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    Replies
    1. But, wouldn't 11% just give back the recent run up or the run up and a small bit more (depending on the index you are viewing)

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    2. (1) RSI EMA(20) is above 50 (Bullish) and rising.
      (2) MACD, TSI, and TRIX are Bullish.
      (3) ROC EMA(20) is above 0 and SLOPE EMA(20) is close to 0; both are rising.
      (4) Volume weighted MFI has bounced off Oversold and is rising

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  4. good evening , its possibile for you have a cicle look fro italian market? tka a lot

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    Replies
    1. Italy ETF (ETF - Electronic Traded Fund)

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  5. What cycle do you think is the right one, about gold?
    https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-HZWRge6r4og/V_7SMziuJKI/AAAAAAAADsg/Mx7iN1QIiQUlVy3zdEmPBBzBt4AcRi4YwCLcB/s1600/oct12%2524gold2016.png

    https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-xRnkANPGkqM/V54cdm0uS3I/AAAAAAAADls/pfkp-ylAD9UDH0n-byoRmBLORDYCZ1WeACLcB/s1600/aug01%2524gold2016.png

    In the second, what day will the bottom

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    Replies
    1. In the second chart note the longer cycle is labeled as a 1 year cycle and starts in early Dec 2015 so a bottom should be the first week of December 2016. The second chart appears to be the better interpretation of the gold movement.

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  6. inlet, if possible can u please do a chart of gdx or slv

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    Replies
    1. Gold: https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordpress.com/

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    ReplyDelete