Cycles are a tool and should not be used to the exclusion of other tools. There is always the possibility (high probability long term) that the data will be misinterpreted or a relevant fact over looked. So use cycles to check your analysis, not as the only reason to make a decision. Interpretation is the opinion of the author and may be incorrect and should be viewed in that light.
Saturday, July 25, 2015
July 27, 2015 weekly outlook
The fourth cycle (2.5 week) tops and turns down. By the final day of July all the cycles I am plotting will be down. By the first week of August we should see a nested bottom of these 4 cycles. Here is a visual:
As early as the last of May or first of June My cycles charts identified late July or early August as a bottoming of multiple cycles (nested bottoms).... Trying not to break my arm patting myself on the back (hehehe), but the potential nested bottoms looks more and more likely by first week of August.
In order to keep the S&P 500 Index comparable across time, the index needs to take into account corporate actions such as stock splits, share issuance, dividends and restructuring events (such as merger or spinoffs). Additionally, in order to keep the Index reflective of U.S. stocks, the constituents need to be changed from time to time.
Based on your cycles, you're expecting a minimum drop here to early August. I just think this is just the beginning to a deeper drop but will get a nice bounce to 2110 this week before we roll over.
My expectations is for a longer cycle to bottom late 2015 that could be deeper. Still trying to determine a more exact time frame (late 2015 or first part of 2016), so let's see how the market acts once the this medium length cycle bottoms.
Inlet, i looked back to 5/30 article but even that didnt have details of target levels. Nevertheless, we almost hit my target of 2110 today, i think we'll get there tomorrow and upside to 2120 is not ruled out to rest of week. However, I do expect that we test 2050 in early august.
As early as the last of May or first of June My cycles charts identified late July or early August as a bottoming of multiple cycles (nested bottoms).... Trying not to break my arm patting myself on the back (hehehe), but the potential nested bottoms looks more and more likely by first week of August.
ReplyDeleteIn order to keep the S&P 500 Index comparable across time, the index needs to take into account corporate actions such as stock splits, share issuance, dividends and restructuring events (such as merger or spinoffs). Additionally, in order to keep the Index reflective of U.S. stocks, the constituents need to be changed from time to time.
ReplyDeleteFutures indicate a gap down Monday open....
Based on your cycles, you're expecting a minimum drop here to early August. I just think this is just the beginning to a deeper drop but will get a nice bounce to 2110 this week before we roll over.
ReplyDeleteMy expectations is for a longer cycle to bottom late 2015 that could be deeper. Still trying to determine a more exact time frame (late 2015 or first part of 2016), so let's see how the market acts once the this medium length cycle bottoms.
ReplyDeletePeter - the outlook I posted back around 1st of June: http://www.swingcycles.blogspot.com/
ReplyDeletespx should top out this friday
ReplyDeletethen spx should make a bottom next friday and a rally will start.
ReplyDeleteInlet, i looked back to 5/30 article but even that didnt have details of target levels. Nevertheless, we almost hit my target of 2110 today, i think we'll get there tomorrow and upside to 2120 is not ruled out to rest of week. However, I do expect that we test 2050 in early august.
ReplyDelete