Sunday, October 12, 2014

Oct 13, 2014 weekly outlook

I have shown you longer term cycles that indicated we should see market weakness and pullbacks in  the Aug-Oct 2014 time frame.  Even longer cycles may bottom in 2015-2016.  I am beginning to believe the market is now under the influence of these longer cycles (3.5 year Kitchin cycle, 13 1/2-15 month 1/3 Kitchin cycle, 20 week Wall cycle).  I  have also recently shown you the 7 year Juglar cycle....

We may get an attempt to rally this week as the large banks report, but any rally will be short lived.  Here is the outlook (Longer cycles now synched down):

GL traders

10/14/2014 update

An advancing market displays the characteristic of right translated cycles (longer periods advancing than falling).  I have mentioned this several times over the past 4-5 years.  A declining market is characterized by left translated cycles (down legs are longer in time and decline more than they advance).  Usually the declines are more pronounced in a major decline than  the advances were in the same amount of time.  I showed you a chart recently showing major cycles advancing about 5.5 years to lose those advances to a large extent in 1.5 to 2 years.  Here is the recent market  - note the left translated cycles (peaks left of the center line of the cycle):

Left translation continues?


  1. Just curious, any guess on the bounce?

    *I'm looking for 1970/90, although I think many will be looking for a little under that.

  2. The PPT keeps trying to rally the market at the open and by end of day the market closes down. Will today be the same? Looks like an UP open.