Sunday, September 14, 2014
Sept 13 weekly outlook and more
Longer term the group of longer term cycles I have referenced in the past (Kitchin, 1/3 Kitchin and Wall cycles) seem to be coming together to provide a more protracted downturn. The Wall cycle (20 weeks, 4.5 weeks) should be at a top, the 1/3 Kitchin 13,5 months is over 6 months up from its last bottom and topping. The Kitchin cycle is well past its top and should be in the area where it goes hard down soon.
See for yourself:
How much of a pullback could we expect? I looked at the nesting of cycles longer than the Kitchin some time ago. Two Kitchin cycles make up what is called the Juglar cycle (7+ years). This cycle usually right translates and goes up 5-5 1/2 years and down 1 1/2-2 years. Last bottom was likely early 2009 (up 5+ years 2002-2007) and down late 2007 into Mar 2009). Here is an update of a chart I maintain showing the current iteration of this cycle:
So this covers the long cycles? Hardly!!! Here are longer cycles (that I posted quite a while [2-3 years] ago and their likely placement in time (2 Juglar cycles in a Kuznet cycle):