Sunday, January 12, 2014

Week of Jan 13, 2014 outlook

Minor downside during the past week, but really more sideways than down.  Seems market is down most of the day and recovers last hour to close slightly down or mixed for the day.  A lot of money entering the market that last hour to support the market.  Looking at some of the statistics retail investors have less money in cash and bonds and more money in equities  - levels last seen in 2007.

I believe this support without market advance will result in some downside pressure.  If that is correct we may see a couple of note worthy down days next week. 

Here is a visual:



GL traders

5 comments:

  1. @inlet:If the bottom 20? And going up to 25? and then we have to go down to 30? How do you feel.tq inlet

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    1. Not sure I understand what you are asking. Looks like the week should be down and market has some downside to make up if selling starts

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  2. Hey Inlet.

    1790 ? Hmm... well, that is just a touch under my most bearish outlook of 1810/00. The 50 day MA should provide VERY strong support, and that is currently around 1800.

    Your cycle chart should scare the hell out of the bears..as we move into Feb/March.

    *bigger picture looks good for a floor in the Aug/Oct period. Certainly..we'll need to stay sharp..and ready for the multi-month top this spring. Good downside of 250/300pts on the sp'500.

    Have a good week!

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    1. Basing the 1790 target on the DPO (Detrended Price Oscillator) which should account for cycle amplitude and price movement. As with any method it is not perfect, but normally gives a decent guess. Combined with other methods one can usually come up with a decent estimate.

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  3. a sideways week, one down day worthy of note

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