Friday, April 5, 2013

2013 Outlook - end of 1st qtr

So how well did I do in my 2013 outlook? One way to find out is to look at the first quarter and overlay the cycles I had shown when I posted my 2013 outlook.  That would look like this with the first quarter data included:

Not bad with the most recent top matching the 34TD cycle top.  If this outlook continues to play out as shown then we will see weakness through most of April....   After than I would expect a run up into the second week of June to set a 52 week high as the Wall cycle (20 week) tops and the 1/3 Kitchin cycle tops.  After than we should fade into mid August,  rally into end of October and then bottom near the end of the year.

In summary -  we should have just seen a top and next is a bottom in April (general weakness most of the month of April - enough to suck in the bears before the bear slaughter in May).

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