Friday, December 28, 2012

January 2013 outlook

I expect the market to pull back into mid January as several cycles appear to be set to bottom then. Based on the 20 week DPI I am projecting a low in the 1340 area. Since we have other even longer cycles that may also be bottoming this may be too optimistic and a low in the 1200s for the S&P would not be surprising. After a bottom in mid January I expect some recovery into mid-February.

Here is a visual:

GL, Happy new year....  Wear your parachute for cliff jumping.


  1. If we get a small bounce from the 22TD cycle this week, when would you expect it to peak?

  2. Spiker - the larger question is - will the 22 TD cycle provide enough force to offset the down pressure of other cycles and provide any upside. The 22TD cycle should top Thursday.

  3. Given the big rally of the last 2 days, do you think the larger cycles have bottomed early and this rally will continue into April, as indicated in your 2013 forecast?

  4. Given liquidity (central banks printing money) it is more likely the bottom will be late (March 2013) and instead of 42 months the kitchin cycle will be 48 months. David Knox Barker whom I have referenced several times over the past 2 years seems to believe that is the case. Google "David Knox Barker" for more detail on his outlook.