Weekly outlook Mar 27, 2017

Bottom may have been Tuesday's 1% pullback, but we have worked slightly lower in some indexes.  So we may work slightly lower as the nested bottoms finalize their move.  Notice that the lower bound of the Keltner channel been touched (as it was in Nov 2016, late June 2016 and mid February 2016. (every 4 1/2 months).

 November 8, 2016 plus 4 1/2 months is due now even allowing for some non-trading holidays.  So we will see next week - does the market turn up as shorter cycles turn up or does the bottom take 2-3 more days to gain enough upside pressure to move off the bottom?

GL traders

Weekly outlook Mar 20, 2017

3 shorter cycles formed a nested bottom and are turning up.  Long (9 month) cycle topped and is turning down.  As cycles gain momentum may set a new high, but not expecting any large move up or down.

Update 3/23:  Top of 9 month cycle and we get a mid-cycle (4 1/2 month) correction.  Next bottom of note is first part of August???

Good luck traders

TLT mar 13, 2017

Expect next tradeable bottom mid April.

GL traders

Weekly outlook Mar 13, 2017

Appears market still has more than a week to a bottom (near end of March), so a pullback continues  another 3-4% if the charts prove to be true.

GL traders

Gold/silver (XAU) March outlook

One more week down to set a bottom, then up as cycles turn. Last half of March should turn. but upside limited as 6 month cycle tops and turns down.

GL gold bugs

Weekly outlook for Mar 6, 2017

I told you last week:
"it appears any upside will be limited and possibly we see a slight downside bias by week's end."

We saw substantial moves by mid week, but gave a portion back after that.  The indexes were up less that 1% for the week  As I told you - limited upside   but Downside bias by week's end.

We have the 4.5 month (20 week), 10 week, and 5 week cycles down this week.  I expect these 3 cycles to prevail as the 9 month cycle see a mid cycle dip.  So a trade may be to trim your long positions (I will play an inverted index ETF for a short term trade - (looking for a 2-3% gain).

GL traders

gold/silver outlook Mar 2017

Gold/silver index: (2 week correction, - in to 2nd week of correction - then up 2nd/3rd weeks of March)

GL gold bugs

Weekly outlook for Feb 27, 2017

As expected the four trading days in the prior week rose (slight upside bias), but less than 1% for most indexes.

TSI is showing a negative cross.  The 4.5 month cycle and 10 week cycles are into what should be a stronger down part of those 2 cycles.  The 5 week cycle is topping and should be down by mid week.  The nine month is still up, but should be losing upside momentum as it seeks its top.

So it appears any upside will be limited and possibly we see a slight downside bias by week's end.

GL traders

Weekly outlook for Feb 21, 2017

9 month cycle:  2-3 weeks up to top  in early March.  5 week cycle:  up. 10 week cycle:  topping and turning down by end of week.  Market continues slow ascent for next 4 trading days (upside bias).

TSI has reached a level at which a correction is possible in the near future (early March?)

GL traders

VIX and SPX