april 27, 2015 weekly outlook

The outlook for the week is somewhat unclear, but we will give it a shot.  The longer 20 week cycle is up, while the half cycle (10 week) is down.  Taken together these 2 cycles offset to a large extent.

The 5 week cycle (24TDs) is up, the 2.5 week (12 TDs) is down.  These 2 cycles will offset to a large extent. 

The TSI had a positive cross late last week while the CCI is now in the overbought area.  Again offsetting indicators.

Some are predicting (because of ATHs - All Time Highs) we will see an upside breakout.  Again some indexes set ATHs and others didn't - so not a clear situation......

With positives and negatives conflicting makes sideways seem most likely for the week.  Here is a visual:

GL traders

Apr 20, 2015 weekly outlook

Prior week ended on a down day.  Looks like any move down will be fairly short. The 2 shorter cycles should bottom by mid week and turn up.  The 10 week cycle has topped and turned down but will have minimal impact until it gains some down momentum.  The 20 week cycle moves up toward a top in 4+ weeks.  I expect the market to pull back into mid week and then turn up the last half of the week.

Hurst chart:

 

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Apr 13, 2015 weekly outlook

The Wall cycle is up providing some upside push. The 24TD cycle is also up providing some upside push (as well). The 12TD cycle should top (upside push into mid week - then down).  Potential of index highs mid-week. The 12TD cycle should turn down by end of the week.  The remaining cycle will be topping during the week and provide little contribution up or down.

Over all expect highs by mid week and then the market starts a fade into the following week (April 20 week). Here is a visual:

GL traders

04/17 - futures looking weak prior to open, but you never know.  Still, I had speculated that we would top mid-week and drift lower by end of week.

Apr 6, 2015 weekly outlook

This past week it appears that the 12TD cycle probably topped early giving us a left translated top.  What does this tell us?  Usually a left translated top implies more down days than up days to follow.  More down days implies a good probability of more downside than upside.

The 24 TD cycle has topped and is now  down.  The 12TD cycle should be up, but as noted above the left translated top may lead to  an inversion of normal pattern (down instead of up).  The longer cycles are up, so usually we would be looking for the shorter cycles to offset and see a sideways move over the week +/- 1-2%, but I suspect it will be with a downward bias.

Given the weeks employment report on Friday, volatility should continue and time for first qtr earnings and they are not expected to be good.

Here is visual as best as I can determine:

GL Traders

Mar 30, 2015 weekly outlook

This is the point within cycles that it gets more difficult to call market movements as the bottom nest has completed and you have shorter cycles up and down.  The 12TD cycle may have bottomed (or should soon) and turn up.  But this is mid-cycle of the 24TD cycle which should top and turn down.

So these 2 cycles should offset to a large extent with the shorter cycle showing movement over a shorter span.  Also the longer cycles are up.  So there should be a bias to the upside over the next week, but volatility probably continues.

Here is a visual:

GL traders

Tue Mar 31 - 11:30 am update  ---  evidence developing that the 12 TD cycle bottom is in place:

Mar 23, 2015 weekly outlook

We should be at or see the top of the 12TD cycle early in the week.  In an up trending market often the top is right translated (right of the center of the cycle).  If that proves to be the case with the market setting new highs (up trending) then the top may be as late as mid week for the 12TD cycle. Though we expect we may have seen the top on Friday, but our other indicators do not indicate that.

Longer cycles (24TD, 45TD and Wall cycles) have also turned up and may start to gain some momentum later in the week giving us a minimum type of pullback (2% or so?).  It could be more than 2% given recent volatility.

Here is a visual:

GL traders

Tuesday close: appears Friday was the 12TD top (as suggested as possible)

Mar 16, 2015 weekly outlook

Last week I suggested a  bottoming scenario with the possibility of not much change.  At the end of the week the SnP 500 was down a little over 1% even though we had 200-300 point moves up and down.  The bottoming should be finished early this week,  Then we get the FED meeting and all the pumping that implies by mid week.  This should result in about 6 up days (half the 12TD cycle) as the nested cycles I follow turn up.  Of course it takes time off the bottom for the longer cycles to achieve momentum so upside may be muted as it will be mostly due to the shorter cycle.

Here is a visual:

GL traders

Monday morning:  Looks like "early week" was open on Monday....

Tuesday close:  down,  but still up for 2 days

Thursday:  Top of 12TD cycle forming:

Mar 9, 2015 weekly outlook

I told you a couple of weeks ago to look for 6-8 down days.  We got that.  I adjusted the cycles to show a bottom mid-March and so far that is looking correct.

Looks like a week that could easily end up where it starts.  Down the first part of the week and then a bounce.  On the other hand if the market decides to continue what it started Friday we could see another 40-50 points down on the SnP.    Some day we will get more than a 5-6% pullback.  The market pulls back because it thinks the FED will raise rates in 4-6 months.  Seems a bit early for that.  I think given recent cuts in earnings estimates and declines in manufacturing may finally be impacting the market.

We will have a better idea by the end of the week.  Here is a visual:

GL traders

Mar 2, 2015 weekly outlook

Looks like we may have finally topped Friday Feb 27.  We will find out next week.  I believe I am off with my cycle bottoms so I have tried to account for holidays the last part of 2014 and early 2015 which moves the projected bottoms into mid-March.    I find this is necessary with the shorter (swing trade) cycles about twice a year.  I should do a better job making the adjustments as the holidays happen.

So please note I expect the bottom mid March.

GL traders

 

Feb 23, 2015 weekly outlook

Seems unclear whether market continues up or takes a short rest.  Greece can kicked down the road a bit.  FOMC still in easy mode (seems they are continuing about $25B a month to their balance sheet as they continue to cycle  securities plus interest back on to the FED balance sheet).  May not seem like much, but it is about $300B a year ($1/3Trillion). But Russia debt downgraded to junk.  So It is a mixed picture.  West coast slow down may be settled, but the damage done will probably be seen in the future.

Like I said an unclear outlook, but I expect a pullback over the next 6-8 trading days.

GL traders