Weekly outlook Dec 1, 2014

I suspect we may have been seen (right translated?) a top.  MFI is diverging and headed down while market was topping (going up) past 2 weeks.  Also, TSI experienced a bearish crossover.  Finally crossover of envelop upper lines (11 days and 23 days) are giving a sell signal.  With multiple indicators giving bearish/sell signals the  coming week may be the first down week in a while.    Finally the Russell 2000 is about where it was when I bought RWM 3 weeks  ago.

Here is a visual:

Good luck traders

week of Nov 24, 2014 outlook

When in a strong uptrend it can be difficult to identify (see) troughs because they are minor blips down in the uptrend.

 

http://sentienttrader.com/hurst-trading-room/blog/40-day-trough/

GL traders

http://thefinancialtap.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/SP-500-Blow-off-top-The-Financial-Tap.png

Update 11/25

http://www.safehaven.com/article/35924/the-flux-capacitor-forecast

outlook week of Nov 17, 2014

Short term:

Long term (Hurst cycles) outlook:
http://sentienttrader.com/hurst-trading-room/blog/will-bull-market-end/
 

GL traders

Nov 10, 2014 weekly outlook (Updated Nov 12)

Less downside pressure than expected as market continued to push ever so slowly higher.  Still it looks like a top formed.  We should see a mid cycle  (40+ TDs cycle) by Nov 17 after a right translated top this past week.  I do not expect a large pull back as this is a mid cycle pull back.  See prior mid cycles for an idea of the extent of mid cycle corrections (usually 2% or so).

Here is a visual:

GL traders

Nov 3, 2014 weekly outlook (Updated)

The current week should have seen the topping of the 20+ TDs cycle.  If we get a right translated top (past cycle midpoint) we could see slightly higher highs on S&P early in the week. but expect a top no later than Tuesday  even in that case.

GL traders

Bought some RWM on Friday, 2 cent per share loss at close.

11/4 update at the close:  So far volatility less than expected,  but appears top forming.

Nov 2014 monthly outlook

Given recent volatility moves in November may be substantial on a daily basis.  Over longer periods expect ups an downs to largely cancel over the month of November.  I expect November to be good for traders, not so good for investors.

We should be at/near a top to start November.  By mid-November the shorter (20+ TDs) cycle should bottom (Nov 17 +/- 1 day).  At that point the shorter cycle (20+ TDs) turns up and the longer (40+ TDs) turns down.  So  they offset to a large degree thru the end of the month and into early December.

I expect we could see around 2% pullback in the month.

GL traders

Oct 27, 2014 weekly outlook

Last week I said to expect some upside from the shorter cycles.  Was stronger to the upside than I expected.... 

This week less upside potential as shorter cycle tops and turns down.

GL traders

oct 20, 2014 weekly outlook

 

Oct 13, 2014 weekly outlook

I have shown you longer term cycles that indicated we should see market weakness and pullbacks in  the Aug-Oct 2014 time frame.  Even longer cycles may bottom in 2015-2016.  I am beginning to believe the market is now under the influence of these longer cycles (3.5 year Kitchin cycle, 13 1/2-15 month 1/3 Kitchin cycle, 20 week Wall cycle).  I  have also recently shown you the 7 year Juglar cycle....

We may get an attempt to rally this week as the large banks report, but any rally will be short lived.  Here is the outlook (Longer cycles now synched down):

GL traders

10/14/2014 update

An advancing market displays the characteristic of right translated cycles (longer periods advancing than falling).  I have mentioned this several times over the past 4-5 years.  A declining market is characterized by left translated cycles (down legs are longer in time and decline more than they advance).  Usually the declines are more pronounced in a major decline than  the advances were in the same amount of time.  I showed you a chart recently showing major cycles advancing about 5.5 years to lose those advances to a large extent in 1.5 to 2 years.  Here is the recent market  - note the left translated cycles (peaks left of the center line of the cycle):

Left translation continues?

Oct 6, 2014 weekly outlook

Last week said a short term bottom was expected.  Bottom was 1 day later than expected. Recovered a substantial part of the loss from earlier in the week by Friday.  Short term it appears we should see some gain first part of this week. Expect a top by Friday unless the unexpected happens in Europe, mid East or China.  We could also see multiple cases of Ebola in Dallas (fear is not good for the market).

But based on short cycles expect continued volatility with market highs in latter part of week or fist of following week...

Here is a short term chart outlook:

GL traders.  I expect to replenish my RWM positions by end of week...

update after close 10/07/2014

Weakness continued and buy signals failed to materialize...

Longer term charts showing weak Oct seem to be in effect.