April Outlook - Daniel T. Ferrera

Ferrera is a Gann disciple and produces longer term cyclic forecasts.  His 2013 forecast is calling for a change in trend in 2013, and according to this chart that change should happen as soon as April. Here is a chart from a site advertising his outlook service (for sale of course and not cheap):

• With the Dow again pushing ALL TIME HIGHS, in the face of a weak economy, and impending global crises, and unemployment, do you expect that these prices will hold forever? Do you think we are about to break through to new highs and an extended Bull Market? Are you reading this because you are seeking advice on when this situation is going to turn around, one way or the other? Ferrera says that 2013 IS A CRITICAL YEAR, expected to produce a significant change in the markets, and he has collated over a dozen different forecasting techniques to cross-verify his own exhaustive analysis. If you are invested in or concerned about the markets in any way, you will not want to miss this important insight into what’s coming in the next few years…

I  do not disagree with this outlook.

http://www.sacredscience.com/ferrera/Outlook2013.htm

Update SPX - Mar23, 2013

As I have pointed out multiple times the past couple of weeks - up trending markets tend to have shorter cycles that are right translated (larger/longer up legs).  This is what we've seen since mid November, but it appears the shorter cycles are becoming a bit more symetrical which is expected as the up trend tops and turns.

Still we expect a cycle bottom by or before mid-April.  The expected downside is about 80 points from the top (1560 - 80 = 1480) , but possibly less as not all the shorter cycles are set to bottom at the same point.  Here are a couple of views (longer and shorter):

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3/25/ 11:00 am update ...

3/26 10:45 am update:

3/27 10:45 am update

trend reversal? update 3/22

It appears we may be setting a symetrical cycle.  If so it could mean a trend reversal of the longer cycle.  Take a look (updated chart 03/20):

3/22   Short cycles becoming more symetrical (top?):

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Is it golden - Mar gold update - Mar 18

Notice how that short cycles have been left translated for HUI since mid Sept.  Appears that we now have a leg down and up that are fairly symetrical.  So a small down leg and a turn would imply that the longer trend is ready to (may have) turned....  So our future may be golden soon.

Here is the visual:

 GL traders

03/18 Playing out as projected so far:

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Bull markets are right translated

In an ideal world a cycle top would be half way between two bottoms.  Unfortunately the world is not ideal.  When the trend of the longer cycles are up the shorter cycles tend to be right translated (top to the right of the cycle mid point).  So any down turn is squeezed into the last part (less than half) of the cycle. I know of no firm rule for fixing where in that second half the top will occur.  Often a larger part of the down side is in the last 1/4 to 1/8 of the total cycle. The  reverse is true (left translated) for a down trend.

I have discussed left an right translation before, but I would like to give you one more visual representation of this. 

How does this play out in the real world?  See for yourself:

If we are near a trend change then the current move up should be short lived... 

How does silver look - Mar 7, 2013

Looks like a short term bottom may be in order.  Here is a visual:

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market update Mar 6, 2013

Market continues to extend up past expected top.  As I have noted in an uptrending market (covering multiple shorter cycles) the shorter cycles tend to be right translated (up legs longer - time and points) than the down leg.  Of course this is getting a bit over  done!!!  Today though was mixed (NAZ down).

Still, market beginning to look a lot like it did from June thru mid November 2012.  Maybe it will play out that way again?  Here is a visual (DOW):

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Charles Nenner on Bloomberg Mar 2013

Appl $360
Intel (semis) top in a couple of weeks
DOW 5000 by cycles bottom in 2017

http://www.businessweek.com/videos/2013-03-04/dow-dropping-to-5-000-starting-this-year-nenner

Enjoy

SPX uptrend is right translated

You may observe when an equity is trending up that the up leg is longer (points up and time) than the down leg (points and time).  This is referred to as "right translated".  Take a look at the S&P 500 (uptrend until a week or so ago).  This understanding of cycles may be helpful in timing your trades.

Here is the chart:

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RWM (inverse ETF) left translated

Equities in a down trend tend to produce "left translated" cycles.  What does that mean?  It means the up leg is shorter (time and points up) than the down leg (time and points down).  This knowledge lets you adjust your holding period accordingly.

Take a look at RWM to see how "left translation" shows up on a chart:

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