tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7842515298666372288.post6493087486537856569..comments2023-11-10T02:06:14.989-08:00Comments on Swing Trade cycles: Comments and outlook for 06-29-2011Inlethttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03736266762277491275noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7842515298666372288.post-60796357522538613682011-07-06T07:21:13.308-07:002011-07-06T07:21:13.308-07:00Inlet. Glad you saw my amended comment and chart....Inlet. Glad you saw my amended comment and chart. Yes you are right about the $VIX. Nothing scientific but my observations over the years indicate that if it is right it is really right. Like everything else it can be wrong. I think personally that after the 4th of July the market will have a really hard time into the fall. We will see. Need a way to carry these comments to the latest post.tomterrifichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11653416082624412727noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7842515298666372288.post-88418684721158983772011-07-06T05:10:38.768-07:002011-07-06T05:10:38.768-07:00Tom - yes, I had seen that proposal of VIX as an i...Tom - yes, I had seen that proposal of VIX as an indicator before. I also looked at it and found it has a decent record, but can give false signals. <br /><br />I encourage you to use whatever gives you the results you want. As I stated in the general statement of my blog - cycles is one tool and should be used in conjunction with your other analysis. Good luck.Inlethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03736266762277491275noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7842515298666372288.post-56771523088745903042011-07-05T12:05:55.892-07:002011-07-05T12:05:55.892-07:00I am trying to repost my $ VIX Chart. For some re...I am trying to repost my $ VIX Chart. For some reason the chart did not show up as it should have. See http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p35316818427. If it does not shoe up and appear to be self explanatory then email me directly at tjllatt@gmail.com. In any event you buy when the $VIX returns into the Bollinger Band but be ready to go when it is above the Bollinger Band. <br /><br />Also the seasonal strength is just before any Holliday and not for the month of July.tomterrifichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11653416082624412727noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7842515298666372288.post-12089558598232009242011-06-29T08:55:08.833-07:002011-06-29T08:55:08.833-07:00Samz7 - I have tried to totally honest with peopl...Samz7 - I have tried to totally honest with people that I will get it wrong sometimes (news affects cycle action or I misnterpret the data, or I am wrong in my estimate of the strength/weakness of the cycle combo. <br /><br />I appreciate your comments. Anyone who has tried to predict daily market action (and tracked it) will find if they are right 60-70% of the time they are doing pretty darn good.Inlethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03736266762277491275noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7842515298666372288.post-77955784625925674662011-06-28T19:09:18.984-07:002011-06-28T19:09:18.984-07:00forgot to say, i really appreciate your posts!
i h...forgot to say, i really appreciate your posts!<br />i have been following u recently, but remember last week you were nailing it and believe last couple days is simply one of those days every trader has go to through sometimes<br /><br />good trading!Samz7https://www.blogger.com/profile/11797481769206409358noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7842515298666372288.post-71119378047192680242011-06-28T19:07:36.522-07:002011-06-28T19:07:36.522-07:00im short and believe to start with gap down tmrw i...im short and believe to start with gap down tmrw in my model<br />more confusion before greek vote<br /><br />and on your chart, every trend up rally during a down swing cycle (22,11,5 days) was a great entry for short<br />we have all of them bottoming tmrw at close<br /><br />rationally, this is a great short opportSamz7https://www.blogger.com/profile/11797481769206409358noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7842515298666372288.post-68103720180993053802011-06-28T17:31:37.559-07:002011-06-28T17:31:37.559-07:00TT
Don't like to shoot from the hip - so I d...TT <br /><br />Don't like to shoot from the hip - so I did a little research:<br /><br />Hot Julys and Summer Rallies<br /><br />By Christopher Mistal<br />Although, July may be the best month of the third quarter for the Dow and S&P, that is not saying much. Performance for the other two months, August and September, is negative for the most part. Two recent “hot” Julys in 2009 and 2010 when DJIA and S&P 500 both gained greater than 6% have boosted July’s average gains since 1950 to 1.2% and 1.0% respectively. Such strength inevitability stirs talk of a “summer rally”, but beware the hype, as it has historically been the weakest rally of all seasons (page 70, Stock Trader’s Almanac 2011).Inlethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03736266762277491275noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7842515298666372288.post-22131572719421087962011-06-28T16:54:55.456-07:002011-06-28T16:54:55.456-07:00TT
OK. Looking at the VIX chart: What are your r...TT<br /><br />OK. Looking at the VIX chart: What are your rules for determining a VIX buy signal? How many years have you backtested per these rules? <br /><br />I cannot discuss that "buy signal" if I do not know the reasoning. I do know based on how I interpret the VIX there is no trend change signal (discussed in prior posts). <br /><br />You should always make decisions based on your own analysis (not mine). <br /><br />I have no problem with disagreement, but prefer more detail than "VIX buy signal" and "seasonal strength" if I am to give it proper consideration.Inlethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03736266762277491275noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7842515298666372288.post-3099511684717240452011-06-28T16:16:13.042-07:002011-06-28T16:16:13.042-07:00I respectfully disagree. We have a $VIX buy signa...I respectfully disagree. We have a $VIX buy signal. See http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p71455061291. Also there is a seasonality now coming into play into the 4th of July. I have a hard time swallowing this myself, but right or wrong this is what I see. I am neither bullish or bearish but I try to follow the path of least resistance.tomterrifichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11653416082624412727noreply@blogger.com