tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7842515298666372288.post5935754335521282475..comments2023-11-10T02:06:14.989-08:00Comments on Swing Trade cycles: Jan 20, 2014 weekly outlookInlethttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03736266762277491275noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7842515298666372288.post-38078992407474021622014-01-24T16:25:06.376-08:002014-01-24T16:25:06.376-08:00Hi Inlet,
Looks like your 1790 target was hit...Hi Inlet, <br /> Looks like your 1790 target was hit -- well done! Curious to hear your thoughts on upcoming FED week...thank you for your work.<br />-dcBdc-BEARhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07311610462824405558noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7842515298666372288.post-31225237298836570122014-01-20T11:21:13.777-08:002014-01-20T11:21:13.777-08:00It is "Kitchin" after a person named Kit...It is "Kitchin" after a person named Kitchin and he described a business cycle (some refer to this cycle as the inventory cycle). During an expanding economy companies tend to be overly optimistic and accumulate too much inventory (happens about every 41-42 months). Production slows as companies try to liquidate excess inventory (as happened in 2008) the economy and stock market turn down. So 1 kitchin cycle is late 2011 or early 2012 (cycle top). A kitchin cycle bottom is due any time (in theory) but David Knox Barker (Long cycle expert - google him) claims QE has stretched these cycles so 2014 may see a Kitchin bottom.<br /><br />But, keep in mind it may take several months (say 20% of the total cycle or 6-8 months) to go top to bottom. In other words except for 1987 it has taken more than a very few days to achieve a correction. Note: the markets normally take longer to go up (usually 70-80% time wise) to go up and less time (20-30%) to correct.Inlethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03736266762277491275noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7842515298666372288.post-7896179846223656242014-01-19T19:00:07.934-08:002014-01-19T19:00:07.934-08:00No. I just meant, in terms of placing too much emp...No. I just meant, in terms of placing too much emphasis on short term cycles vs the bigger ones.<br /><br />Anyway, Kitchen cycle low, Aug' 2014, right?Trading Sunsethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13291647197167518399noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7842515298666372288.post-66151292481807841372014-01-19T14:15:51.493-08:002014-01-19T14:15:51.493-08:00Thanks for the comparison ammoThanks for the comparison ammoInlethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03736266762277491275noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7842515298666372288.post-41294912303492593822014-01-19T14:08:25.708-08:002014-01-19T14:08:25.708-08:00thanks for sharing your work inletthanks for sharing your work inletammohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13668504695204323235noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7842515298666372288.post-41735301587116711992014-01-19T14:06:16.450-08:002014-01-19T14:06:16.450-08:00http://i.imgur.com/KX6fLvA.png 1987 3 step patt...http://i.imgur.com/KX6fLvA.png 1987 3 step pattern<br />http://imgur.com/WvyGqND todays 3 step patternammohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13668504695204323235noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7842515298666372288.post-32267600131660279702014-01-19T08:35:52.315-08:002014-01-19T08:35:52.315-08:00I am overly focused on day to day...?. I post onc...I am overly focused on day to day...?. I post once a week most weeks about the coming week and may add a comment or so during the week. How does that equal overly focused on the day to day. I sometimes add longer outlook for context.<br /><br />See the title of my blog "Swing Trade Cycles"? That implies interest in the shorter term but not daily or shorter (2 weeks or so). I rarely offer an opinion on daily or intra day moves except after the fact. Like it seems clear (except to those who seem to think they have a functioning crystal ball) we are looking at a double top on the SP500. Will it prove to be a top or a base for another move up. Well my crystal ball doesn't say and all I offer is an opinion based on what I observe. What I do know with certainty is with each passing week we are one week closer to a correction. And people who insist they know what the market will do as if it were a true fact (up or down) are taken with some skepticismInlethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03736266762277491275noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7842515298666372288.post-68144682016502660822014-01-18T17:52:40.443-08:002014-01-18T17:52:40.443-08:00re: 'It appears all the new retirement money (...re: 'It appears all the new retirement money (401k, IRA, pension funding, etc.) has failed to move the market higher. '<br /><br />You can't ascribe the lack of a continued market rally to that.<br />--<br /><br />Here is what I see...<br /><br />I see a hell of a lot of chartists out there touting 'oh look..did you see..the market did not soar this week..so...its clearly going to drop now!'.<br /><br />What were all those maniacs touting Monday night after the -1.4% drop? Ohh yeah, a 1929 crash starting mid January.<br />--<br /><br />The primary trend remains UP. Everyone...even you, are getting overly focused on the day to day nonsense. Baring a break <1800..bears should frankly..shut up..and go away until the late spring.<br /><br />Aren't you tired of hearing the relentless top callers every week? I sure am. Trading Sunsethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13291647197167518399noreply@blogger.com