Friday, March 25, 2016

Mar 28, 2016 weekly outlook

Ten week cycle now into stronger down move.  Five week cycle topping out during week and should turn down by week end.  So expecting down move into mid April.  Move could be 130 points based on the DPO for 50 days (10 weeks).  See DPO range below.  For the week ahead SPX should move down about 2% (40 points)? 

GL traders

Friday, March 18, 2016

Weekly outlook Mar 21, 2016

I expected the past week to bottom by mid week which is what happened.  Just before the end/after the FOMC meeting Wednesday the market turned up and had a small gain for the week. 

Three of four cycles are now up.  Sometimes the 10 week cycle shows good momentum down so the market may take a rest and pull back into month end (then it may not) if the 10 week shows some dominance.  Time will tell....

GL Traders

Friday, March 11, 2016

Mar 14, 2016 weekly outlook

The market continues pushing higher.  The 5 week cycle should bottom mid week giving us a couple of days sideways  - maybe downside bias  the 14th-15th....   The 10 week cycle will be topping as the  5 week cycle bottoms (sideways move into mid week?).  But, longer term through the month of March  the cycles suggest more upside.

GL Traders

Saturday, March 5, 2016

Mar 7, 2016 weekly outlook

Last week I introduced the Hurst cycles.  One cycle is 54 months.  One fourth  of that is 13 1/2 months. 

If you have followed my blog you know I have often referred to the Kitchin cycle which is 40 1/2 months and I often showed 1/3 of the Kitchin cycle (13 1/2 months).  Another commonality of Kitchin and Hurst cycles is the 20 week cycle (4 1/2 months or 1/3 of 13 1/2 months).

So every  4th  Kitchin cycle and 3rd 54 month cycle these cycles bottom together which should result in a steeper sell down. It appears the Kitchin cycle may have just bottomed and the Hurst 54 month cycle bottoms 2017 Feb/Mar time period.  So for the next 5-6 months shorter cycles may push the market sideways or up.  Continued volatility  is expected as the Hurst 54 month cycle pushes down against shorter cycles pushing up as cycles go through their progression.....  By Sept/Oct the market pressure should revert to down side pressure.

GL traders

Estimating move "amplitude" using DPO.  Answer  to a question....