Saturday, March 28, 2015

Mar 30, 2015 weekly outlook

This is the point within cycles that it gets more difficult to call market movements as the bottom nest has completed and you have shorter cycles up and down.  The 12TD cycle may have bottomed (or should soon) and turn up.  But this is mid-cycle of the 24TD cycle which should top and turn down.

So these 2 cycles should offset to a large extent with the shorter cycle showing movement over a shorter span.  Also the longer cycles are up.  So there should be a bias to the upside over the next week, but volatility probably continues.

Here is a visual:

GL traders

Tue Mar 31 - 11:30 am update  ---  evidence developing that the 12 TD cycle bottom is in place:

Saturday, March 21, 2015

Mar 23, 2015 weekly outlook

We should be at or see the top of the 12TD cycle early in the week.  In an up trending market often the top is right translated (right of the center of the cycle).  If that proves to be the case with the market setting new highs (up trending) then the top may be as late as mid week for the 12TD cycle. Though we expect we may have seen the top on Friday, but our other indicators do not indicate that.

Longer cycles (24TD, 45TD and Wall cycles) have also turned up and may start to gain some momentum later in the week giving us a minimum type of pullback (2% or so?).  It could be more than 2% given recent volatility.

Here is a visual:

GL traders

Tuesday close: appears Friday was the 12TD top (as suggested as possible)

Friday, March 13, 2015

Mar 16, 2015 weekly outlook

Last week I suggested a  bottoming scenario with the possibility of not much change.  At the end of the week the SnP 500 was down a little over 1% even though we had 200-300 point moves up and down.  The bottoming should be finished early this week,  Then we get the FED meeting and all the pumping that implies by mid week.  This should result in about 6 up days (half the 12TD cycle) as the nested cycles I follow turn up.  Of course it takes time off the bottom for the longer cycles to achieve momentum so upside may be muted as it will be mostly due to the shorter cycle.

Here is a visual:

GL traders

Monday morning:  Looks like "early week" was open on Monday....

Tuesday close:  down,  but still up for 2 days

Thursday:  Top of 12TD cycle forming:

Saturday, March 7, 2015

Mar 9, 2015 weekly outlook

I told you a couple of weeks ago to look for 6-8 down days.  We got that.  I adjusted the cycles to show a bottom mid-March and so far that is looking correct.

Looks like a week that could easily end up where it starts.  Down the first part of the week and then a bounce.  On the other hand if the market decides to continue what it started Friday we could see another 40-50 points down on the SnP.    Some day we will get more than a 5-6% pullback.  The market pulls back because it thinks the FED will raise rates in 4-6 months.  Seems a bit early for that.  I think given recent cuts in earnings estimates and declines in manufacturing may finally be impacting the market.

We will have a better idea by the end of the week.  Here is a visual:

GL traders